FES pathways on 2025's weather
Prices in GBP/MWh, energy in TWh. FES columns are NESO's own figures for the same year; the model's are from one weather year with price-taking links and unit commitment, so the gaps are part of the result.
| Pathway | Year | Mean price | Daily spread | Imports | FES imports | Exports | FES exports | Curtailment | FES curtailment | Unserved (GWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holistic Transition | 2030 | 86.3 | 72.0 | 36.8 | 35.7 | 24.6 | 38.9 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 68.0 |
| Holistic Transition | 2035 | 211.7 | 163.8 | 47.8 | 27.6 | 51.3 | 108.8 | 34.9 | 41.0 | 723.0 |
| Electric Engagement | 2030 | 74.3 | 58.0 | 36.3 | 37.0 | 28.4 | 40.1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 9.7 |
| Electric Engagement | 2035 | 191.1 | 162.4 | 60.1 | 41.3 | 46.9 | 89.1 | 15.0 | 27.4 | 683.2 |
| Hydrogen Evolution | 2030 | 65.6 | 44.3 | 36.9 | 40.1 | 24.5 | 36.2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 0.0 |
| Hydrogen Evolution | 2035 | 121.4 | 109.1 | 52.2 | 31.3 | 40.7 | 93.5 | 19.6 | 34.2 | 214.8 |
| Falling Behind | 2030 | 72.4 | 34.9 | 41.4 | 29.5 | 20.9 | 35.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Falling Behind | 2035 | 56.0 | 43.4 | 33.6 | 21.2 | 32.8 | 61.8 | 18.7 | 18.0 | 0.0 |
| Ten Year Forecast | 2030 | 66.3 | 38.6 | 37.2 | 22.9 | 24.2 | 46.8 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 0.0 |
| Ten Year Forecast | 2035 | 57.1 | 36.3 | 44.7 | 21.2 | 42.2 | 93.1 | 18.3 | 23.7 | 0.0 |
| Ten Year Outlook | 2030 | 73.8 | 32.0 | 43.2 | 42.1 | 19.6 | 34.0 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 0.0 |
| Ten Year Outlook | 2035 | 86.4 | 53.1 | 45.7 | 35.3 | 39.1 | 69.3 | 15.3 | 49.8 | 20.0 |
Prices are OpenEnergy's model of GB with this pathway's fleet and demand on 2025's weather and fuel, carbon and neighbouring prices, not a forecast. Cost-based dispatch of GB on one bus: plants bid short-run marginal cost; imports, nuclear, biomass, hydro and pumped storage follow (scaled) historic output; storage is optimised with perfect foresight over the year (with unit commitment, a day at a time seeing a day ahead), so results are an idealised benchmark. Scarcity pricing is not modelled, and start-up costs only with unit commitment, so price spreads are narrower than in the real market. FES scenario: capacities and annual demand scaled from NESO's Future Energy Scenarios relative to the weather year, which keeps its weather, demand shape and fuel and carbon prices; hydrogen and CCS gas are counted as gas plant; FES batteries and new long-duration storage are added as storage fleets. Interconnectors are price-taking links: each imports when GB's price is above the neighbour's actual day-ahead price in the weather year and exports when below, up to its capacity times an availability, by default fitted from its actual flows in 2019-2025 (not from prices); on 2024 this imports 46.4 TWh against 43.9 TWh actual.
Future Energy Scenarios: National Energy System Operator (NESO), FES: Pathways to Net Zero 2025 and Ten Year Outlook 2026, Electricity Supply Data Table (ES1) and Electricity Demand Summary (ED1), https://www.neso.energy/data-portal/future-energy-scenario-electricity-supply-data-table-es1 and https://www.neso.energy/data-portal/fes-electricity-demand-summary-data-table-ed1 (accessed 2026-10-13), NESO Open Data Licence v1.0 (https://www.neso.energy/data-portal/neso-open-licence). Supported by National Energy SO Open Data. OpenEnergy is not affiliated with or endorsed by NESO.
OpenEnergy 4.2.1. Code MIT; data keep their own licences, credited with each result.